What's the difference?
MATA — Our custom aggregate. Blends Kalshi's market odds with polling averages, fundraising totals, outside spending, and historical race margins. Smooths out thin markets and leans on fundamentals when they diverge from the market.
No Kalshi — Same MATA algorithm with the Kalshi market signal dropped. Shows what the model says purely from polls, fundraising, outside spending, and historical margins. Useful for sanity-checking whether the market and the fundamentals agree.
Kalshi Only — Live prediction market odds. Real people betting real money on each race. Reflects current market consensus, but can be volatile or thin on volume for smaller races.